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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. However, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest upset.

Yet this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime underperformers improving together. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still